Quantifying the probability of clinical trial success from scientific articles

Joshi V, Milletti F

Drug Discov Today. 2014 Oct; 19(10):1514-7

PMID: 24955839

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1359644614002475

Abstract

We sought to analyze how the number and quality of publications predict clinical trial success for a set of gene–disease associations. Limiting the scope of our analysis to genes in the protein kinase family and to oncology indications, we extracted gene–disease relationships from more than 12 million article titles and abstracts published between 1992 and 2012.

We integrated these data with clinical trial information for FDA-approved kinase inhibitors and kinase inhibitors that failed owing to lack of efficacy. We found that, up until the year when a compound enters clinical trials, the cumulative number of publications about a gene–disease relationship corresponding to the compound's mechanism of action is, at the median, 30 for approved compounds but only four for failed compounds.